@zachpogrob
Obsession beats discipline - go all-in on your craft until you either die or get reborn.
The Hail Mary as Strategy
Hail mary is not a last resort - it is a strategy. Great achievers did not get lucky once; they repeatedly bet everything on futures they knew were bigger. High-risk attempts are a repeatable tactic, not a desperation move.
Decision Rule
When playing for asymmetric upside with capped downside, throw hail marys repeatedly. Do not save them for emergencies. The expected value of many high-risk attempts exceeds the expected value of playing it safe.
How It Works
Most people throw one hail mary and quit when it fails. Winners throw them continuously, knowing that one hit pays for all the misses. The strategy is about frequency, not luck.
Failure Modes
Hail marys when one failure ends the game permanently
Confusing recklessness with calculated high-risk attempts
Not learning from failed attempts to improve subsequent ones
Example Decision
“Launch ambitious products repeatedly, knowing most will fail but one will break through. Each launch is a hail mary. The strategy is to throw enough that one connects.”