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My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

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media and information

Prediction markets becoming primary source for real-time odds in media

Timeframe: 2024-2026 acceleration during election cycles

What's Changing

News outlets increasingly embedding prediction market odds instead of traditional polling data for election coverage and event forecasting

Driving Forces

Higher accuracy than polls due to skin-in-the-game

Real-time updates vs static polling

Crypto infrastructure making platforms easier to use

Traditional polling credibility crisis

Winners

  • Prediction market platforms (Polymarket)
  • Crypto infrastructure providers
  • Media companies with better forecasting
  • Sophisticated bettors

Losers

  • Traditional polling companies
  • Static forecast models
  • Media relying on outdated polling methods

How to Position Yourself

1

Build prediction market widgets for easy embedding

2

Create B2B tools for media companies

3

Develop expertise in interpreting prediction market data

4

Focus on markets with high volume and reliability

Early Signals to Watch

Media citation frequency of prediction marketsVolume growth on platformsTraditional polls vs prediction market accuracyRegulatory clarity

Example Implementation

“News website embeds live Polymarket widget showing real-time election odds instead of citing week-old poll numbers”