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My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

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startup landscape

Hard tech startups becoming viable again after software-dominated decade

Timeframe: Already underway, will accelerate over next 5-10 years

What's Changing

Transition from 'Airbnb for X' and mobile app startups to companies building rockets, supersonic jets, and solving physical world problems

Driving Forces

Software markets becoming saturated

Venture capital seeking differentiated returns

Technical talent gaining confidence from SpaceX success

Manufacturing and prototyping costs decreasing

Winners

  • Technical founders willing to tackle decade-long problems
  • Investors with longer time horizons
  • Companies solving obvious but ignored physical problems

Losers

  • Pure software plays with low barriers to entry
  • VCs focused on quick exits and fund raising cycles
  • Non-technical founders in technical spaces

How to Position Yourself

1

Build deep technical moats early

2

Target problems that can't be solved with software alone

3

Expect longer development cycles but bigger outcomes

4

Focus on fundamental physics and engineering advantages

Early Signals to Watch

More hard tech companies in YC cohortsIncreasing valuations for deep tech startupsTraditional VCs hiring technical partnersGovernment funding flowing to strategic industries

Example Implementation

“Boom raising $700M for supersonic jets when no hard tech startups existed in 2014, now part of growing category including SpaceX, fusion companies, and manufacturing robotics.”