My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Successive AI Business Model Waves with Short Defensibility Windows
Timeframe: Each wave lasts 12-24 months before commoditization
What's Changing
AI enabling multiple companies to quickly build similar solutions in waves, but most get commoditized as AI models improve and integrate features.
Driving Forces
Rapid AI model capability improvements
Low barriers to entry for AI-powered tools
Fast follower dynamics in AI space
Platform companies integrating AI features natively
Winners
- Companies building defensible moats beyond AI features
- Marketplaces and network effect businesses using AI
- First movers who can capture and retain users before commoditization
Losers
- Single-feature AI companies without defensibility
- Companies building on easily replicable AI use cases
- Late entrants to already crowded AI categories
How to Position Yourself
Focus on defensible business models that use AI as enhancement
Build network effects and data moats alongside AI features
Move fast in new AI categories before commoditization
Consider marketplace or platform models rather than tools
Early Signals to Watch
Example Implementation
“Instead of building another AI copywriting tool, build a marketplace for AI practitioners or a platform that uses AI to enhance existing workflows.”