My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
There is no sustainable investment alpha for most people - tax optimization creates better risk-adjusted returns than trying to beat the market
The Reasoning
Market efficiency makes consistent outperformance extremely difficult, while tax optimization provides guaranteed returns with lower risk and complexity
What Needs to Be True
- Markets remain reasonably efficient
- Tax optimization strategies remain legal and accessible
- Individual investors lack resources/time to compete with institutional players
- Tax rates remain meaningful percentage of total returns
Counterargument
Some individuals and funds do consistently beat markets through skill, information advantages, or market inefficiencies, especially in less efficient markets
What Would Change This View
Evidence of accessible strategies that consistently beat market after accounting for taxes, fees, and time investment
Implications for Builders
Build tax optimization tools rather than stock picking platforms
Focus on guaranteed savings rather than uncertain returns
Create products that help people implement simple indexing + tax efficiency
Partner with tax professionals rather than trying to replace financial advisors
Example Application
“Instead of launching another robo-advisor promising market-beating returns, build a platform that optimizes asset location, tax-loss harvesting, and retirement account contributions for guaranteed tax savings.”