Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

There is no sustainable investment alpha for most people - tax optimization creates better risk-adjusted returns than trying to beat the market

Spiciness
investment_philosophy

The Reasoning

Market efficiency makes consistent outperformance extremely difficult, while tax optimization provides guaranteed returns with lower risk and complexity

What Needs to Be True

  • Markets remain reasonably efficient
  • Tax optimization strategies remain legal and accessible
  • Individual investors lack resources/time to compete with institutional players
  • Tax rates remain meaningful percentage of total returns

Counterargument

Some individuals and funds do consistently beat markets through skill, information advantages, or market inefficiencies, especially in less efficient markets

What Would Change This View

Evidence of accessible strategies that consistently beat market after accounting for taxes, fees, and time investment

Implications for Builders

Build tax optimization tools rather than stock picking platforms

Focus on guaranteed savings rather than uncertain returns

Create products that help people implement simple indexing + tax efficiency

Partner with tax professionals rather than trying to replace financial advisors

Example Application

Instead of launching another robo-advisor promising market-beating returns, build a platform that optimizes asset location, tax-loss harvesting, and retirement account contributions for guaranteed tax savings.