My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Super Bowl advertising is the most underpriced media in the world despite costing $7+ million for 30 seconds.
The Reasoning
It's nearly impossible to get 130 million people to voluntarily watch and pay attention to a 30-second video. The cost per engaged viewer is actually low compared to other attention-getting methods when you factor in the quality of attention (people want to see the ads).
What Needs to Be True
- Your creative execution must be exceptional - bad creative wastes the opportunity
- You need to measure brand impact, not just direct response
- The brand value from cultural conversation must be factored into ROI
- You can afford the production costs alongside the media buy
Counterargument
The media cost is just the beginning - production costs can be $5-40 million, many ads are forgotten immediately, and measurement of brand impact is difficult to tie to revenue.
What Would Change This View
Data showing that Super Bowl ads consistently fail to deliver measurable business impact even when creative is strong, or if attention quality decreases significantly (people stop watching ads).
Implications for Builders
If you have exceptional creative capability, Super Bowl could be worth considering
Focus on campaigns that generate conversation beyond the game itself
Budget for production costs that match the media investment
Have systems to capitalize on the attention spike after the ad runs
Example Application
“A startup with a viral-ready product concept and $10M budget might get better ROI from one Super Bowl ad than from 2 years of digital advertising, if they can create something that becomes a cultural moment.”