Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

For individual investors, selling stocks is almost always a mistake - the optimal strategy is to never sell quality investments regardless of market conditions or external signals.

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investment_strategy

The Reasoning

Human psychology consistently leads to poor timing decisions based on emotion, fear, or external noise rather than fundamental analysis. Transaction costs and tax implications compound these errors.

What Needs to Be True

  • Investor owns quality assets with long-term growth potential
  • Investor doesn't need liquidity for survival
  • Markets continue to grow over long-term periods
  • Investor can psychologically handle volatility without selling

Counterargument

Sometimes fundamental changes in companies or markets justify selling, and rebalancing portfolios requires some selling activity.

What Would Change This View

Evidence of individual investors consistently timing markets successfully or systematic approaches that reliably beat buy-and-hold strategies.

Implications for Builders

Set up automatic investment systems that remove selling as an option

Choose investments you can hold for 10+ years

Ignore market noise and external 'signals' about timing

Focus on earning more income rather than optimizing existing investments

Example Application

Investor who bought Tesla at $30, received negative signals from Reddit and family conversations, sold at $200, watched it go to $1000+ and learned to never sell again.