My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Polymarket will reach nearly $1 billion in betting volume by end of 2024, driven by presidential election coverage
The Reasoning
Media embedding drives viral growth, election cycles create massive betting interest, and platform has solved user experience problems that plagued earlier prediction markets
What Needs to Be True
- US election generates massive betting interest
- Media continues embedding prediction market odds
- Platform maintains technical reliability
- Regulatory environment remains stable
Counterargument
Regulatory crackdown, technical issues, or competition could limit growth; US restrictions already limit addressable market
What Would Change This View
Sharp regulatory restrictions, platform technical failures, or traditional polling accuracy improvement
Implications for Builders
Prediction market infrastructure is valuable
Media-embeddable widgets are high-leverage features
Election cycles create predictable demand spikes
Example Application
“Build prediction market widgets for news sites or create specialized markets for specific industries”