Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

Padel/paddle tennis will become the next major recreational sport in the US, similar to pickleball's recent explosion

Spiciness
trend_prediction

The Reasoning

Sport has proven massive adoption in Europe/Latin America, offers more athletic challenge than pickleball, fits urban space constraints better than tennis, and creates strong community dynamics

What Needs to Be True

  • Court construction economics work in US real estate markets
  • Sport attracts younger, more athletic demographic than pickleball
  • Equipment and instruction ecosystem develops
  • Social/networking aspects drive continued participation

Counterargument

Too late to market after pickleball, requires more skill making it less accessible, equipment and court costs too high for mass adoption

What Would Change This View

Stalled court construction, failure to attract non-immigrant demographics, pickleball continuing to dominate racket sport growth

Implications for Builders

Build courts in tier 2 cities before competition arrives

Create social networks and rating systems around the sport

Develop equipment and instruction businesses

Focus on community building and networking aspects

Example Application

NYC courts cost $300/hour and are booked solid on weekends despite only 2,000 US courts vs 20,000 in Spain, showing massive unmet demand.