My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Padel/paddle tennis will become the next major recreational sport in the US, similar to pickleball's recent explosion
The Reasoning
Sport has proven massive adoption in Europe/Latin America, offers more athletic challenge than pickleball, fits urban space constraints better than tennis, and creates strong community dynamics
What Needs to Be True
- Court construction economics work in US real estate markets
- Sport attracts younger, more athletic demographic than pickleball
- Equipment and instruction ecosystem develops
- Social/networking aspects drive continued participation
Counterargument
Too late to market after pickleball, requires more skill making it less accessible, equipment and court costs too high for mass adoption
What Would Change This View
Stalled court construction, failure to attract non-immigrant demographics, pickleball continuing to dominate racket sport growth
Implications for Builders
Build courts in tier 2 cities before competition arrives
Create social networks and rating systems around the sport
Develop equipment and instruction businesses
Focus on community building and networking aspects
Example Application
“NYC courts cost $300/hour and are booked solid on weekends despite only 2,000 US courts vs 20,000 in Spain, showing massive unmet demand.”