Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

OpenAI will become the largest company in the world, potentially reaching trillion-dollar valuations or beyond, by combining Google-scale usage with subscription revenue.

Spiciness
valuation_prediction

The Reasoning

Unlike Google which relies purely on advertising, ChatGPT has both massive scale (800M weekly users) and direct subscription revenue. This dual revenue model provides higher margins and more predictable income than advertising-only models.

What Needs to Be True

  • AI adoption continues accelerating
  • ChatGPT maintains market leadership
  • Subscription model scales globally
  • Enterprise adoption increases
  • Regulatory environment remains favorable

Counterargument

Competition from Google, Microsoft, and others could fragment the market. AI costs remain high, potentially limiting profitability. Regulatory concerns could slow growth or force breakups.

What Would Change This View

Significant competitive pressure reducing market share, major technical breakthrough by competitors, regulatory intervention limiting growth, or cost structure never reaching profitability at scale.

Implications for Builders

Build on OpenAI platform while it's growing

Prepare for AI-first world

Consider subscription models for your products

Don't compete directly with OpenAI's core offerings

Example Application

A developer builds AI-powered tools using OpenAI's API, benefiting from the platform's growth while avoiding direct competition with ChatGPT's core functionality.