My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Starting a newsletter business today would be significantly harder and less likely to succeed compared to 2016, despite better infrastructure and tools.
The Reasoning
Market saturation creates noise that prevents viral organic growth, while increased competition makes it harder to stand out and be noteworthy enough for people to share.
What Needs to Be True
- Newsletter market remains oversaturated
- Organic social sharing continues to decline
- Audience attention remains fragmented across platforms
- Cost of paid acquisition remains high relative to LTV
Counterargument
Better tools, more sophisticated advertising options, and proven monetization strategies could offset increased competition for skilled operators.
What Would Change This View
Evidence of new newsletters achieving rapid organic growth, significant decrease in Facebook ad costs, or emergence of new distribution channels.
Implications for Builders
Focus on highly specific niches rather than broad topics
Invest more heavily in paid acquisition from day one
Build network effects or defensible moats beyond content
Consider industry-specific rather than general interest newsletters
Example Application
“Instead of building general business newsletter, focus on specific job titles in forgotten industries and monetize through community and peer groups rather than just ads.”