Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

There will be mass unemployment in tech and knowledge work within 2 years, with entire job categories like BDRs disappearing completely

Spiciness
prediction

The Reasoning

AI can already perform many knowledge work tasks better than humans, and companies will eliminate roles once they realize the AI alternative is superior and cheaper

What Needs to Be True

  • AI capabilities continue improving rapidly
  • Companies overcome inertia and actually lay off workers
  • AI tools become more reliable and trustworthy
  • Regulatory environment doesn't prevent AI adoption

Counterargument

Job displacement will be gradual with new types of jobs created, similar to previous technological revolutions

What Would Change This View

Evidence that AI capabilities plateau, or that new job categories emerge faster than old ones disappear

Implications for Builders

Build AI tools that replace entire job functions

Focus on industries most susceptible to AI replacement

Consider social and political implications of job displacement

Plan for potential regulatory backlash

Example Application

A consulting firm realizes its junior analysts can be completely replaced by AI trained on their methodologies and client data, leading to massive layoffs