My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Exceptional investment performance requires individual decision-making rather than team consensus, because the best opportunities are contrarian positions that teams naturally avoid.
The Reasoning
Teams gravitate toward consensus and safe picks to avoid individual blame. Contrarian bets require conviction that goes against group think. The highest returns come from being right when others are wrong, which teams psychologically resist.
What Needs to Be True
- Market inefficiencies exist primarily in areas of strong negative sentiment
- Group decision-making systematically avoids unpopular positions
- Individual conviction can overcome social proof bias better than committees
- The best investors have differentiated information or judgment
Counterargument
Teams provide diverse perspectives, reduce blind spots, and prevent individual emotional decision-making. Many successful investment firms use collaborative approaches. Risk management benefits from multiple viewpoints.
What Would Change This View
Evidence that team-based investment firms consistently outperform solo investors over long periods. Proof that contrarian opportunities don't actually drive superior returns. Data showing group decision-making reduces investment mistakes.
Implications for Builders
Consider whether your business decisions benefit from consensus or individual conviction
Identify areas where being contrarian creates competitive advantage
Build decision-making processes that allow for unpopular but high-conviction bets
Separate consensus-driven operations from conviction-driven strategy
Example Application
“A startup founder decides to pursue an unpopular market segment despite advisor concerns, reasoning that if advisors and VCs all agree it's a bad idea, there's likely less competition and more upside if they're right about the opportunity.”