My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
The difference between first and second place in content and business is not linear but exponential - often 1000x or more
The Reasoning
Internet dynamics consolidate production while democratizing consumption, creating winner-take-all markets where slight differences in quality create massive differences in rewards
What Needs to Be True
- Network effects continue to strengthen
- Attention remains scarce while content increases
- Quality differences remain detectable by audiences
- Distribution platforms maintain algorithmic amplification of top performers
Counterargument
Many successful businesses exist in second and third place, local markets don't follow winner-take-all dynamics
What Would Change This View
Evidence of second-place businesses achieving comparable rewards, algorithmic changes that flatten distribution curves
Implications for Builders
Focus intensely on being #1 in your niche rather than just good
Better to be first in small market than second in large market
Invest disproportionately in content quality and differentiation
Accept higher risk for shot at exponential rewards
Example Application
“500 million people watched Usain Bolt but nobody knows who got second place despite 0.02 second difference”