My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Back to Takes
Facebook's advertising platform has fully recovered from iOS privacy changes, with customer acquisition costs returning to pre-change levels
Spiciness
Market Recovery PredictionThe Reasoning
Platform adaptation combined with advertiser learning curve - Facebook rebuilt targeting capabilities while advertisers optimized for new constraints
What Needs to Be True
- Facebook developed alternative targeting methods
- Advertisers learned new optimization strategies
- Competition hasn't permanently shifted to other platforms
Counterargument
Recovery might be temporary or limited to certain verticals, Apple could implement further restrictions
What Would Change This View
CAC costs spiking again, advertisers reporting poor performance, exodus to competitors
Implications for Builders
Facebook ads are viable acquisition channel again
Worth testing if previously written off
May have less competition due to lingering skepticism
Example Application
“DTC brand that abandoned Facebook ads in 2021 should test again, likely to find better performance and lower competition than expected”