My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Elon Musk will publicly admit that buying Twitter was a mistake within the next year, and the platform will either be sold or undergo dramatic leadership change.
The Reasoning
Advertiser exodus is making Twitter financially unsustainable, Elon has already acknowledged 'hardship he didn't need,' and the platform's value has declined significantly.
What Needs to Be True
- Advertiser boycotts continue long-term
- Alternative revenue streams fail to replace ad revenue
- Elon's other businesses start demanding more attention
- Twitter's financial losses become unsustainable
Counterargument
Elon's wealth allows him to subsidize Twitter indefinitely, X/everything app strategy succeeds, or Twitter becomes profitable through subscriptions.
What Would Change This View
Twitter achieving profitability without traditional advertising, successful pivot to 'everything app,' or Elon finding sustainable business model.
Implications for Builders
Opportunity exists in Twitter-like platforms with sustainable business models
Focus on building communities that aren't dependent on advertising
Consider how to serve users fleeing unstable platforms
Build with assumption that large platforms can become unstable quickly
Example Application
“If Twitter becomes unstable, there's opportunity for focused professional networking platform or niche community tools that serve specific user needs without relying on advertising.”