My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
E-commerce is a solved problem and no longer offers significant entrepreneurial opportunities
The Reasoning
If you can name anything on Earth, you can find a site with 10,000 options delivered to your house by tomorrow. The infrastructure, logistics, and consumer behavior are all established.
What Needs to Be True
- Consumer needs are fully served by existing platforms
- Distribution and fulfillment infrastructure is commoditized
- Competition makes margins unsustainable for new entrants
- Innovation opportunities are incremental rather than transformative
Counterargument
Niche markets, new product categories, and geographic expansion still offer opportunities. New technologies like AR/VR could create new commerce experiences.
What Would Change This View
Emergence of new consumer behaviors not served by current platforms, or fundamental technology shifts that recreate commerce infrastructure.
Implications for Builders
Avoid generic e-commerce business models
Focus on industries not yet digitized
Look for B2B commerce opportunities
Consider vertical-specific solutions with unique workflows
Example Application
“Instead of starting another consumer e-commerce site, build B2B maritime procurement platform where current solutions don't exist.”