My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
The key to business success is finding markets with dumb competition rather than competing against other geniuses
The Reasoning
Like poker table selection, your success depends more on who you compete against than how skilled you are. Smart competitors will match your moves and erode margins. Dumb competitors leave opportunities for superior execution and customer service.
What Needs to Be True
- Intelligence and execution quality vary significantly across industries
- Some markets attract lower-quality competitors systematically
- Superior execution can create defensible advantages against weak competition
Counterargument
Dumb competition often exists because markets are genuinely difficult or have structural problems that smart people avoid
What Would Change This View
Evidence that competing in highly intelligent markets leads to better long-term outcomes due to market growth and innovation
Implications for Builders
Research competitor quality when evaluating market opportunities
Look for industries using outdated technology or processes
Avoid hot startup categories where top talent congregates
Consider B2B markets that seem boring but have large customer bases
Example Application
“Instead of starting another AI startup competing against Stanford PhDs, apply AI to freight logistics where competition still uses fax machines and phone calls”