Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

Construction industry has massive 'idiot index' - final building costs are hundreds of times higher than raw material costs, creating huge disruption opportunity

Spiciness
Industry Analysis

The Reasoning

Similar to Elon's rocket analysis - when final product price vastly exceeds material costs, there's usually massive inefficiency that can be eliminated through first-principles thinking and automation

What Needs to Be True

  • Building codes can be programmed into software reliably
  • Factory automation can handle customization at scale
  • Consumers will accept factory-built homes with proper quality
  • Logistics of delivery and assembly can be solved economically

Counterargument

Construction has high material costs due to complexity, local regulations, skilled labor requirements, and site-specific challenges that automation can't solve

What Would Change This View

Evidence that customization requirements prevent automation benefits, or that regulatory barriers make factory approach uneconomical

Implications for Builders

Massive opportunity for first mover in automated housing

Traditional construction companies vulnerable to disruption

Software and AI capabilities becoming critical in construction

Vertical integration advantages in housing production

Example Application

Build houses for $500/sq meter using automated factory when traditional construction costs $2000+/sq meter, capturing the efficiency gap as profit and consumer savings