My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Like error rates in predictions and science, there's a 'conspiracy rate' where 0.1-5% of suspicious events actually involve real conspiracies.
The Reasoning
Conspiracies do exist but are difficult to execute due to challenges keeping secrets among many people, especially lower-paid participants over long periods.
What Needs to Be True
- Most people have difficulty keeping major secrets
- Lower-income participants in conspiracies need ongoing incentives to stay quiet
- Large-scale coordination becomes exponentially harder
- Most suspicious events have mundane explanations
Counterargument
Some conspiracies are successfully executed by small, highly motivated groups with strong incentive structures and limited participants.
What Would Change This View
Evidence of large-scale conspiracies staying hidden for decades with many participants, or new technology making coordination and secrecy much easier.
Implications for Builders
Don't dismiss all conspiracy theories but don't build business around them
Focus on building systems assuming normal human behavior patterns
Consider conspiracy theories for entertainment value rather than strategic planning
Understand that some percentage of official narratives may be incomplete
Example Application
“When evaluating business partnerships or market dynamics, assume most actors are operating normally while maintaining awareness that some small percentage may involve hidden coordination.”