My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Successful entrepreneurs develop extreme confidence and belief in their abilities long before they have evidence or proof of their capabilities.
The Reasoning
Belief creates the psychological foundation necessary to persist through inevitable failures and rejection. Without belief-first mentality, entrepreneurs quit when early evidence suggests they should. Confidence enables the sustained effort required to develop actual ability.
What Needs to Be True
- Founders must distinguish between confidence and delusion
- Belief must be coupled with relentless work ethic
- Market opportunities must exist that reward persistence
Counterargument
Overconfidence leads to poor decision-making, ignoring market feedback, and wasting resources on unviable ideas.
What Would Change This View
Evidence that data-driven, evidence-first entrepreneurs consistently outperform belief-first entrepreneurs in long-term outcomes.
Implications for Builders
Develop confidence through small wins and skill building
Don't wait for permission or validation to start
Use belief as fuel for sustained effort, not excuse for ignoring feedback
Distinguish between core vision belief and tactical flexibility
Example Application
“Entrepreneur believes they can build a Fortune 500 company from their dorm room before having any business experience, then spends decades building the skills and company to match that belief.”