Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

We're entering a period where all business assumptions are invalidated and every company is vulnerable to disruption due to AI capabilities

Spiciness
market_prediction

The Reasoning

Fundamental technology shifts create periods where established competitive advantages become irrelevant and new capabilities enable previously impossible business models

What Needs to Be True

  • AI capabilities continue expanding rapidly across domains
  • Incumbent companies fail to adapt quickly enough
  • New AI-native companies can be built faster than incumbents can respond
  • Regulatory environment doesn't protect existing players

Counterargument

Incumbent companies have resources, distribution, and customer relationships that new AI companies can't easily replicate regardless of technical capabilities

What Would Change This View

Evidence that incumbents are successfully integrating AI faster than startups can build new solutions

Implications for Builders

Attack incumbents in their core business, not just adjacent opportunities

Build AI-first solutions rather than adding AI to existing approaches

Move quickly before incumbents can respond effectively

Target traditional industries that seem 'safe' from tech disruption

Example Application

Startup targeting law firm document review - traditionally protected by regulatory moats and relationship-based sales - now vulnerable because AI can perform core function better and cheaper