Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Back to Takes

Most entrepreneurs miss major opportunities not because they can't identify them, but because they get stuck in analysis paralysis while others take action

Spiciness
contrarian_take

The Reasoning

Crisis opportunities have short windows where early movers capture disproportionate value. While people analyze, first movers build relationships, secure supply chains, and win contracts. By the time analysis is complete, the opportunity window has closed.

What Needs to Be True

  • Crisis opportunities have genuinely short windows
  • Government/institutional buyers reward speed over perfection
  • Supply chain relationships take time to build once demand spikes
  • Most people are naturally risk-averse and over-analyze

Counterargument

Proper analysis prevents costly mistakes, reduces inventory risk, and ensures sustainable business models rather than short-term cash grabs

What Would Change This View

Evidence that systematic analysis consistently leads to better crisis opportunity outcomes, or that most quick-pivot businesses fail catastrophically

Implications for Builders

Develop rapid decision-making frameworks before crises hit

Accept higher failure risk in exchange for speed advantage

Focus on minimal viable response rather than perfect solution

Build operational flexibility for quick pivots

Example Application

Instead of spending weeks researching the perfect PPE product, immediately start with any manufacturable item (masks, shields) and iterate based on actual customer feedback