My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
AI companies are much harder to predict for long-term success than previous software companies because of extremely rapid growth and uncertain sustainability
The Reasoning
Traditional software companies had steady, predictable growth patterns over 7+ years. AI companies reach $100M ARR in 4-5 months, making it impossible to evaluate sustainable foundations
What Needs to Be True
- AI growth rates stabilize
- Clear differentiation emerges between companies
- Business model sustainability becomes apparent
- Competitive moats develop
Counterargument
First movers in AI will capture most value and become dominant platforms, making early bets worthwhile despite uncertainty
What Would Change This View
Seeing AI companies maintain growth rates for 2+ years with clear moats and sustainable business models
Implications for Builders
Be cautious about joining AI companies for equity
Focus on AI applications in stable markets
Avoid betting career on AI company stock
Consider traditional software opportunities
Example Application
“Instead of joining hot AI startup for equity, choose established software company adding AI features for more predictable wealth building”