My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
AI email management will become a 'bloodbath' category with massive competition from incumbent platforms like Gmail, Outlook, and dedicated email clients.
The Reasoning
Large tech companies (Google, Microsoft) have stronger distribution, more resources, and existing user habits working in their favor. Users resist switching email clients, making new entrants face both technical and adoption challenges.
What Needs to Be True
- Incumbent email providers continue investing heavily in AI features
- User switching costs remain high for email clients
- New AI email companies cannot achieve sufficient differentiation
- Large tech companies successfully integrate AI without breaking existing workflows
Counterargument
Specialized AI email companies could win by focusing on specific verticals or use cases where incumbents can't customize enough, similar to how Superhuman carved out premium email market.
What Would Change This View
Clear evidence that users will switch email clients for AI features, or successful vertical specialization that incumbents can't replicate.
Implications for Builders
Consider vertical-specific email solutions rather than horizontal platforms
Focus on integration rather than replacement strategies
Build for use cases where customization matters more than scale
Consider partnering with or selling to incumbents rather than competing
Example Application
“Instead of building general AI email client, focus on AI email assistant for specific industries like real estate or healthcare where specialized knowledge and workflows matter.”