My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Most AI businesses today are not good investments due to rapid technological change making them obsolete quickly
The Reasoning
AI technology is advancing so rapidly that today's specialized tools may be replaced by more general or integrated solutions within 12-18 months
What Needs to Be True
- AI development continues at current pace
- Big tech companies prioritize general AI over specialized tools
- Customers prefer integrated solutions over point solutions
Counterargument
Specialized AI tools may develop defensible moats through data, workflows, or distribution that protect them from general AI advances
What Would Change This View
Evidence that specialized AI tools are building sustainable competitive advantages that general AI can't replicate
Implications for Builders
Focus on businesses you can own rather than invest in
Build for quick exit rather than long-term value creation
Consider distribution and data moats over pure AI capabilities
Example Application
“Jenny AI is a great business to own and sell quickly, but risky to hold long-term as ChatGPT or Google could add essay-writing features that make it obsolete.”