My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
“you don't bet against Zuck”
What It Means
Mark Zuckerberg has such a strong execution track record that betting against him/Meta is likely to fail
Why It Matters
Provides clear investment decision rule based on founder quality assessment
When It's True
When challenges facing the company are technical/external rather than fundamental competence issues
When It's Risky
If the founder's core competencies are no longer relevant or if challenges are existential
How to Apply
Research founder's historical performance in similar situations
Assess whether current challenges match founder's proven skill set
Use contrarian timing when others are pessimistic
Example Scenario
“During iOS privacy changes hurting Meta ads, instead of avoiding the stock, recognize this as a technical challenge Zuckerberg has overcome before”