Knowledge Marketplace
My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

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Make strategic decisions by working backwards from likely future scenarios

Entrepreneurs choosing between multiple ambitious paths

One-time decision framework, 30+ year vision

What Success Looks Like

Clear conviction about which path to pursue based on which future you'd be proudest to have contributed to

Steps to Execute

1

Imagine yourself retired in 2050 reading history books about your industry

2

Ask what those history books would say happened

3

Identify whether incumbents or outsiders drove breakthrough innovation

4

Determine what type of person/team would be needed for that breakthrough

5

Assess honestly whether you could become that person/build that team

6

Choose the path where you'd never regret trying regardless of outcome

Checklist

Can clearly visualize the future state you want to contribute to
Have identified why incumbents won't drive this change
Understand what capabilities you'd need to develop
Feel energized rather than daunted by the challenge
Would be proud of the attempt even if it failed

Inputs Needed

  • Clear vision of industry's potential future states
  • Honest assessment of your current capabilities
  • Understanding of innovation patterns in your industry
  • Deep introspection about what would motivate you long-term

Outputs

  • High-conviction decision about which path to pursue
  • Clear understanding of capabilities you need to build
  • Motivation that survives setbacks and difficulties
  • Framework for making subsequent strategic decisions

Example

“Blake imagined reading aviation history in 2050 and realized startups, not Boeing, would drive supersonic breakthrough, helping him commit to an ambitious path despite lack of aerospace experience.”