My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Back to Mental Models
Skin-in-Game Crowd Wisdom
Collective predictions become more accurate when participants risk their own money rather than just offering opinions
Decision Rule
When seeking predictions or market research, prioritize sources where participants have financial stake in accuracy
How It Works
Financial risk filters out casual opinions and motivated reasoning, leaving participants who genuinely believe their predictions
Failure Modes
Low volume markets easily manipulated
Participants with inside information
Unclear resolution criteria
Demographic bias in participant pool
Example Decision
“Instead of conducting expensive consumer surveys, create prediction market for product adoption rates”