My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Transparent vs Opaque Opportunity Assessment
Opportunities are either 'windows' (transparent, can see outcome clearly) or 'doors' (opaque, unknown what's behind). Most high-potential opportunities are doors
Decision Rule
Don't only pursue opportunities where you can clearly see the outcome. The biggest opportunities often require going through doors where the outcome is uncertain
How It Works
Windows (transparent opportunities) are visible to everyone and therefore highly competitive. Doors (opaque opportunities) require courage and have less competition, but higher potential upside
Failure Modes
Only pursuing opportunities with clear, predictable outcomes
Avoiding all uncertainty and risk
Not developing comfort with ambiguous situations
Waiting for perfect information before acting
Example Decision
“Entrepreneur turns down safe consulting contracts (windows) to pursue unclear but potentially transformative business model (door) that competitors are avoiding due to uncertainty”