My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Wait for Your Pitch Strategy
Like Ted Williams mapping his batting average by strike zone, identify your 'sweet spot' opportunities and only swing at those, passing on everything else
Decision Rule
Only engage when the opportunity falls in your highest-probability success zone, no matter how many other opportunities you pass up
How It Works
Most people overestimate their hit rate across all opportunities. By mapping your actual success rates by opportunity type, you can focus only on areas where you have genuine advantages
Failure Modes
Feeling pressure to be active and swinging at marginal opportunities
Not tracking your actual success rates by opportunity type
Defining your sweet spot too narrowly and missing adjacent opportunities
Letting emotions override data when great opportunities arise
Example Decision
“Trader passes on 50 deals that seem 'pretty good' to wait for the 3 deals per year that fall in their sweet spot, resulting in higher overall returns despite lower activity”