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My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

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AI Tool TAM Calculation Model

Framework for calculating addressable market for AI productivity tools by multiplying user base by willingness to pay based on productivity gains

Decision Rule

If user base is 30+ million and productivity gain justifies $1000+ annual payment, even small market share can create billion-dollar business

How It Works

Productivity tools create direct time savings that can be quantified in economic terms, making price justification easier than consumer products

Failure Modes

Overestimating user willingness to pay for productivity gains

Underestimating switching costs from existing tools

Ignoring network effects that protect incumbents

Assuming productivity gains translate linearly to payment willingness

Example Decision

Cursor targets 30 million developers who would rationally pay $1000-10000 annually for 2x productivity gain, creating $30-300 billion TAM where even 1% share builds massive business