My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Second and Third Order Effects Analysis
Mental framework for analyzing how primary changes create cascading effects that most people miss, revealing hidden business opportunities
Decision Rule
When evaluating any major trend or technology shift, always ask 'If this is true, what else becomes true?' at least 2-3 levels deep
How It Works
Most entrepreneurs focus on obvious first-order effects of trends. Second and third-order effects are less obvious but often larger opportunities with less competition.
Failure Modes
Stopping analysis at first-order effects
Overestimating speed of second-order effects
Ignoring negative second-order effects that could kill the opportunity
Example Decision
“If drone delivery becomes common (first order), packaging will change since items don't need to survive truck transport (second order), creating opportunities for new packaging companies focused on drone-optimized delivery (third order)”