My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Experience Over Belief Trading
People's stated preferences (what they say they want) often differ from revealed preferences (what they actually do), so direct experience is more valuable than stated intentions
Decision Rule
Always prefer working with someone on a small project before major commitments rather than relying on conversations or planning documents
How It Works
Under pressure or when real stakes are involved, people's true priorities, work styles, and character emerge differently than in hypothetical discussions
Failure Modes
Overweighting interview performance vs actual work output
Trusting planning documents over trial collaborations
Making major commitments based on stated preferences alone
Example Decision
“Instead of extensive partner planning documents, work together for 3 weeks on small project to see actual collaboration style and priorities”