My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Expected Value Decision Making
Making decisions based on long-term mathematical expectation rather than individual outcomes
Decision Rule
Focus on whether the decision process was correct, not whether this specific outcome was favorable
How It Works
Good decisions can have bad outcomes due to variance. Judge decisions by their expected value over many iterations, not single results.
Failure Modes
Changing strategy based on recent bad outcomes
Celebrating bad decisions that happened to work out
Focusing on results instead of process quality
Example Decision
“You invest in a startup with strong fundamentals that fails. Instead of concluding investing was wrong, you analyze if your due diligence process was sound and the risk-reward ratio was favorable.”