My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Learning Quality Assessment
Most people have experiences but learn incorrect lessons from them. Success correlates with ability to extract the right lessons from life experiences.
Decision Rule
When evaluating people (hires, partners, investments), prioritize those who demonstrate ability to learn correct lessons over those with just experience
How It Works
Cognitive biases, ego, and random attribution cause people to draw wrong conclusions from experiences. Those who can see through these biases learn faster and make better decisions.
Failure Modes
Being overconfident in your own lesson extraction
Dismissing lessons that contradict your worldview
Not distinguishing between correlation and causation
Learning overly specific lessons from small sample sizes
Example Decision
“Instead of hiring someone because they've 'failed before and learned from it,' evaluate whether their stated learnings actually make logical sense.”