My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Track Record Trumps Temporary Setbacks
When evaluating investments or partnerships, weight a leader's historical execution pattern more heavily than current challenges that appear solvable
Decision Rule
If leader has consistent pattern of overcoming obstacles + current problems are technical/external rather than fundamental competence issues = maintain confidence
How It Works
Successful leaders develop meta-skills for problem-solving that transfer across domains; temporary setbacks often create opportunities when everyone else is pessimistic
Failure Modes
Ignoring when problems indicate fundamental competence gaps
Not recognizing when external environment has permanently shifted
Overweighting charisma vs actual results
Example Decision
“Investing in Meta during metaverse skepticism because Zuckerberg's track record (Facebook growth, competitor acquisitions, platform pivots) suggests ability to navigate this challenge too”