My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Crisis Window Opportunity Model
Major crisis events create temporary market inefficiencies with massive profit potential, but only for those who act within the narrow time window before markets normalize
Decision Rule
When crisis hits, immediately evaluate: (1) What urgent needs are created? (2) What capabilities do I have to address them? (3) Can I pivot faster than existing players? If yes to all three, abandon current plans and pivot immediately.
How It Works
Crises disrupt normal supply/demand balance, create price-insensitive buyers (especially government), eliminate normal competition, and reward speed over optimization. Window closes as supply chains adapt and competition enters.
Failure Modes
Waiting for perfect information while opportunity window closes
Trying to maintain existing business during pivot
Focusing on consumer markets instead of institutional buyers
Over-buying inventory as crisis demand normalizes
Example Decision
“COVID hits in March 2020. Company making promotional products immediately pivots all manufacturing to masks and sanitizer, contacts government buyers, and scales production. Wins contracts worth $50M+ before competition catches up in summer 2020.”