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High-Profile Criminal Capture Through Minor Mistakes
Sophisticated criminals with otherwise perfect operational security are frequently caught through small, seemingly unrelated errors rather than major investigative breakthroughs.
Decision Rule
When evaluating whether someone could be caught for high-stakes activities, focus on tiny operational security failures rather than major detective work.
How It Works
Complex operations require many small decisions, each creating potential failure points. Even brilliant operators make mundane mistakes like wrong usernames, expired licenses, or routine traffic stops.
Failure Modes
Overestimating the sophistication required to catch criminals
Focusing on major investigative techniques while ignoring simple errors
Assuming perfect OpSec is maintainable long-term
Example Decision
“When assessing if someone could be Satoshi, consider whether they might have accidentally posted from the wrong forum account rather than whether the FBI could crack their encryption.”