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Asymmetric Upside Decision Making
Making decisions where the potential upside significantly outweighs the downside risk, even if the probability of success is uncertain
Decision Rule
When downside is limited and known, but upside is unlimited or very large, take the bet regardless of exact probability
How It Works
Focus on the ratio of potential gain to potential loss rather than probability of success, allowing for high-reward opportunities with acceptable risk
Failure Modes
Underestimating true downside costs
Taking too many asymmetric bets simultaneously
Ignoring opportunity costs
Mistaking symmetric bets for asymmetric ones
Example Decision
“Coffee shop implements double-or-nothing payment option: downside is giving away coffee that costs $0.40, upside is getting $8 instead of $4. Even with 50/50 odds, expected value is positive due to asymmetric payoff structure”