My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Market Price vs Reality Divergence Detection
When market prices dramatically diverge from operational reality you observe, it signals major opportunity or risk
Decision Rule
When your direct operational knowledge contradicts market pricing, trust your operational data and act accordingly
How It Works
Markets can be temporarily mispriced due to sentiment while operational fundamentals remain strong, creating arbitrage opportunities
Failure Modes
Overweighting anecdotal operational evidence
Ignoring broader market trends affecting fundamentals
Not considering your sample bias in observations
Mistiming market correction despite being right on direction
Example Decision
“Buying Facebook stock during crash because personal observation of 25 ad accounts showed continued Facebook ad spending despite stock price decline.”