My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

Arbitrage Window Recognition

Mental framework for identifying temporary competitive advantages before they become widely adopted or regulated away

Decision Rule

Ask: Is this capability available but not yet widely used? How long before competition catches up? Can I build sustainable advantage during the window?

How It Works

Works by recognizing gaps between tool availability and market awareness, allowing early adopters to gain advantages before saturation

Failure Modes

Mistaking permanent advantages for temporary ones

Entering arbitrage too late in the cycle

Building entire business on single arbitrage opportunity

Ignoring ethical implications for short-term gain

Example Decision

“Seeing TikTok promote slideshow content while few creators use AI generation tools, deciding to build audience through automated content creation before window closes”