My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Revealed Preference Assessment
Evaluate people's true beliefs and priorities by observing their actions rather than listening to their stated positions
Decision Rule
When words and actions conflict, trust the actions as the more reliable indicator of true beliefs and motivations
How It Works
Actions require real commitment and sacrifice, while words are cheap and easily manipulated for social desirability or signaling
Failure Modes
Over-interpreting single actions
Ignoring context that explains action-word mismatches
Missing genuine belief evolution over time
Example Decision
“A CEO claims work-life balance is important but consistently emails employees at midnight and schedules weekend meetings - their actions reveal they don't actually prioritize balance”