My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Jockey vs Business Investment Decision Framework
An investment decision framework that prioritizes the quality and capability of the entrepreneur over the attractiveness of the business model or market opportunity
How It Works
Great entrepreneurs will figure out how to make their business work, pivot when needed, and execute well, while mediocre entrepreneurs will struggle even with great business models
Components
Evaluate the entrepreneur's track record and capabilities first
Assess their ability to adapt and problem-solve under pressure
Look for evidence of strong execution in previous roles or ventures
Consider the business model secondary to the person running it
Ask whether you believe this person can figure it out even if the initial plan changes
When to Use
When making venture investments, startup investments, or any situation where execution risk is high and the business will face uncertainty
When Not to Use
When buying established businesses with proven operators, or when the business model fundamentally cannot work regardless of execution quality
Anti-Patterns to Avoid
Example
“An investor passes on a promising AI startup with a compelling market opportunity because the founder has never successfully built a team or navigated regulatory challenges, instead investing in a less sexy business run by someone with a track record of execution”