My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
First Principles vs Pattern Matching Decision Framework
A systematic approach to understanding problems by going to root causes and fundamental physics rather than relying on rules of thumb, analogies, or conventional wisdom.
How It Works
Instead of drawing lines through existing data points and extrapolating, you understand the underlying equation that generated those data points, enabling breakthrough insights.
Components
Question qualitative claims about measurable phenomena
Demand quantitative data for quantitative questions
Understand causality rather than correlation
Break problems down to fundamental physics or economics
Build up solutions from basic principles rather than copying existing approaches
When to Use
When working on anything new or different, challenging conventional wisdom, or when rules of thumb keep leading to the same failed outcomes
When Not to Use
For routine operations where established best practices work well and innovation isn't needed
Anti-Patterns to Avoid
Example
“Instead of accepting that Concorde failed because 'people don't want to pay more for speed', Blake calculated actual fuel burn per seat mile and discovered the real issue was just 10% worse fuel economy than needed.”