My First Million
The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.
Don't Bet Against Zuck Framework
An investment thesis that assumes Mark Zuckerberg and Meta will overcome temporary setbacks due to Zuckerberg's track record of consistent execution and adaptation
How It Works
Based on pattern recognition of Zuckerberg's historical performance: built Facebook from college dorm, acquired competitors (Instagram, WhatsApp), defeated Google+ in social, diversified skills (MMA, hunting, Chinese), suggesting resilience and adaptability
Components
Assess temporary vs fundamental headwinds
Review Zuckerberg's historical comeback patterns
Evaluate competitive moats still intact
Consider contrarian timing opportunity
When to Use
When Meta stock is temporarily depressed due to platform policy changes, metaverse skepticism, or competitive threats, but fundamentals remain strong
When Not to Use
When there are fundamental business model threats, regulatory breakup risks, or when Zuckerberg's leadership is genuinely compromised
Anti-Patterns to Avoid
Example
“When Apple's iOS privacy changes hurt Meta's ad targeting, the framework suggests this is a technical challenge Zuckerberg will solve rather than permanent damage, making it a buying opportunity”