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My First Million

My First Million

The best business ideas come from noticing what's working and doing it better, faster, or for a different audience.

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Big Bets Strategy Framework

Reusability

A one-page strategy document that lists 6 specific bets for the year plus explicit non-bets to maintain focus

How It Works

Forces clarity on what you're betting on and what you're saying no to, preventing resource dilution across too many initiatives

Components

1

Write 6 specific bets with situation-bet-success criteria format

2

For each bet, define what success looks like quantitatively

3

List reasonable alternatives you're explicitly not pursuing

4

Expect 1-2 bets to fail, 4 to meet expectations, 1-2 to exceed

5

Share document with entire team for alignment

When to Use

Annual strategic planning, team alignment, resource allocation decisions

When Not to Use

For day-to-day tactics or when you need more than 6 major initiatives

Anti-Patterns to Avoid

Making more than 6 major bets and spreading resources too thinNot specifying what you're saying no toExpecting all bets to work perfectly

Example

E-commerce company makes 6 bets including hiring demand planning specialist, specific partnership type, but explicitly says no to Amazon launch to maintain focus on core bets.